Where Are Examples in Which the 0.1% Happened Rather Than the 99.9% Probability?

Almost everything that actually happens has almost no chance of happening (as viewed in the space of all things that could happen).And when I say almost no chance, I mean something far far less than 0.1%.

For example thoroughly shuffle a standard deck of 52 cards. The sequence of cards you get is one of 52!approx8times10^67 possibilities.

That is so many possibilities that the particular sequence you got has almost certainly never occurred before. And that happens with a set of only fifty-two cards. The sequence of nucleotides making up your DNA is considerably more complicated.

The probability of you happening distinct from the seven billion or so other people on the planet, let alone all the quadrillions of other living organisms, not to mention the virtually limitless other possibilities that might occur is so small as to be insignificant. And yet here we both are, communicating on color#b92b27bftextQuora: who would credit it?In fact to find things with probabilities greater that 0.

1% you have to create artificial mathematical idealisations that don't actually exist in the real world, like rolling a fair die, or flipping a coin. Modelling things in the real world leads to far too many possibilities and details to model accurately. As a result we end up with simplified idealised models in which misleadingly large probabilities occur.

In reality the probability that you are reading this particular answer at this particular time is vanishingly small. Far less than the probability of you winning that jackpot lottery (assuming you have bought a ticket). Unfortunately the fact that you are reading this particular answer at this particular time is also far less financially rewarding than winning that jackpot ddotsmallfrown.

· Other Questions

What is the one book that changed the way you thought about life?

FountainHead by Ayn Rand. The one book which I can read again and again and again and learn something new each time I read.

When I had it for the first time, I felt a sharp sting when I read this - "Never ask people. Not about your work. Don't you know what you want?

How can you stand it, not to know?" It made me realise the importance of having an aim, a purpose to my otherwise carefree life. It taught me hold my head even during adversities and never give up come what may.

It built my confidence. It enlightened me that it is ok to love some people more than others. To me Howard Roark (the main protagonist) is the ideal man.

Few gems from the book - Man cannot survive except through his mind. He comes on earth unarmed. His brain is his only weapon.

Animals obtain food by force. man had no claws, no fangs, no horns, no great strength of muscle. He must plant his food or hunt it.

To plant, he needs a process of thought. To hunt, he needs weapons,and to make weapons - a process of thought. From this simplest necessity to the highest religious abstraction, from the wheel to the skyscraper, everything we are and we have comes from a single attribute of man -the function of his reasoning mind.

Patience is always rewarded and romance is always round the corner! Self respect is something that can't be killed. The worst thing is to kill a man's pretense at it.

Love is reverence, and worship, and glory, and the upward glance. Not a bandage for dirty sores. But they don't know it.

Those who speak of love most promiscuously are the ones who've never felt it. They make some sort of feeble stew out of sympathy, compassion, contempt and general indifference, and they call it love. Once you've felt what it means to love as you and I know it - total passion for the total height - you're incapable of anything less.

I wish I could add more instead encourage to read it.

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Who won the first debate between Trump and Biden?

Despite the spin the media have tried to place on last nights debate, Trump certainly won.

He did this by bringing the professional politician, Joe Biden, down to his level. Biden resorted to the same sort of name-calling and cheap mudslinging as Trump, no matter what any media headline says this morning. They both interrupted each other and were very child-like.

The whole 90 minute debate was cringe-worthy.Trumps wins by stirring up emotions and the emotional display of both men has excited the echo chambers of both left and right. When the people are emotional they grasp for some kind of certainty.

When confronted with the chaos of 2020 (Pandemic, riots, etc, etc) the majority of of voters will grasp for patriotism and institutions of the past. By making Biden look unprofessional, Trump makes Biden look as amateur and uncouth as a business man cum politician. You will see in other posts here, commenters felt both men acted silly and were lying - the whole debate was a debacle and an embarrassment.

Trump understood that with a news cartel man moderating the debate and choosing the questions, the cards were stacked against him. So he decided to mock the entire proceedings with his unruly behavior and needling Biden off his game. Any value the debate would have in informing the public was overshadowed by the resulting spectacle.

One post-debate commenter on PBS likened the debate to a WWF Wrestling match. Embarrassing to both Democrats and Republicans but especially to Democrats as their candidate is supposed to be better than Trump. Their whole platform is to beat Trump but how can they do that when their own candidate is so easily lowered?

So Trump won. He succeeded in derailing the night big time. He won the last election with such tactics and the opposition still dont get it.

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What are some memorable moments in cricket matches?

It was one of the few games I played with my school team. The local U-16 inter school tournament where my school was one of the participants.

My team was almost full of my classmates and a few other juniors. The captain was one of my close friends. So, what happened was we were down to about 10-4 in 3 overs against a more senior kind of team and almost 17 more overs to go.

Our main scorers of the tournament were back into the pavilion and only one other experienced batsman was remaining.I was more of a medium pacer and would be the second last person to go to bat normally. But owing to my good defence play and able to stay at the crease, I was promoted directly to go in at 5 down to protect the other important batsman from the spinners who had created a havoc.

I managed to stay at the crease even as the fastest bowlers were bowling those quicker deliveries before an unforeseen event occurred. A throw from one of the opponent fielders struck my wrist directly which caused severe swelling. At that time of hit, I hardly had noticed it but later on when the umpires saw it increase they had to force me to retire hurt despite some medical sprays.

Our batting collapsed and the innings got over without me going to bat again. I was not allowed to field by my coach and another substitute was sent in my place. Eventually we lost that match but I got much appreciation from the opponent team players during the formal hand shakes.

Even though I was disappointed to have not lived up to his expectations, but I was happy that the captain had that faith in me to promote me up the order.

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What led to racial relations being better in Namibia and Botswana, compared to South Africa?

What led to racial relations being better in Namibia and Botswana, compared to South Africa?

I think there are two reasons, and they are different for the two countries:As others mentioned, Botswana was never truly a British, colony, had always had a vast majority of a single people group, the Motswana, and never had any "war for independence.While I agree with some of the other answers that says that Namibia went through its revenge" phase already, I think there is one important factor that they forget to mention Namibia already had no apartheid since the 1970's (through vote of the local white population) and already had a multiracial local government and multiracial elections long before independence. I believe that this is one reason why the war for independence" was pretty much restricted to the far North (and to a lesser extent parts of Windhoek).

Even before independence, there was already equality (at least officially) and in most of the country the war was something on the border" there was little if any, animosity between the common man on the street of the different racial groups. The racism that existed (and still do to some extent) was more historical between different tribal groups, than between two or more races. Of course, two presidents with strong Christian influences of forgiveness and reconciliation also made a world of a difference.

By contrast, in South Africa there has been a history of repeated wars between especially the Boere ancestors of the Afrikaners, and various black tribes, long before apartheid and blood was shed on both sides. Even under British colonial rule, black people never had voting rights (again, long before apartheid). This was followed by apartheid and the classification of all people into specific races.

This racial classification system has never been abolished in South Africa and is still used as the basis for affirmative action, land reforms, etc. Of course, reverse racism" (discrimination) does little to improve racial relations in South Africa, especially among the new generation that grew up post-apartheid

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I am weak person by heart, How do I build my courage?

Im going to answer this in a way that most people will find (at least) counterintuitive.

But it reflects the way that the mind/body/emotion actually works.You may think Im nuts, but simple TRY IT. If you want to feel brave, ACT brave.

The reality is that feelings actually follow actions.There was a classic experiment to determine which came first; thoughts feelings or actions.So a group of men with a known fear of heights were asked to cross a wood and rope bridge across a river which was safe but moved about when walked on.

At the START of the bridge they place a very attractive female with the cleavage and short skirt etc etc. SHE was the one who asked the men to cross the bridge with a winning smile of encouragement. Nine out of ten men crossed without argument, were surprised at the fact that they had , and felt really good about themselves.

However, when the female was replaced by another man 7 out of 10 refused despite all encouragement.The first group all admitted they didnt want to look weak in the eyes of the attractive lady, so they ACTED brave, and when they did , they FELT brave.Sometimes this happens in the wild when a parent sees a child in danger or hurt or whatever.

It happens in wartime when someone runs out to help a fallen comrade.Its the same with love and relationships, If you dont feel like making love (when your partner does) just start making love, the mood will come quite quickly.Initially this sounds really dumb, but just TRY it.

AND the more often you do it the easier it becomes.It really is that simple